# Phase 2: Varying-Coefficient Estimates (Z₁ Focus)

| DV | Moderator | Z₁ (base) | Z₁×Mod | N | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ca_gdp | (baseline) | 29.765** | -- | 7624 | 0.025 |
| ca_gdp | safe_issuer | 25.196* | 73.730* | 7624 | 0.034 |
| ca_gdp | qe_active | 28.850** | 53.554 | 7624 | 0.025 |
| ca_gdp | eurozone | 28.943** | -115.976 | 7624 | 0.028 |
| ca_gdp | income_high | 12.357 | 84.437*** | 7624 | 0.045 |
| ca_gdp | income_low | 54.375*** | -100.626*** | 7624 | 0.030 |
| ca_gdp | is_oecd | 22.457 | -52.375 | 7624 | 0.033 |
| ca_gdp | kaopen_sat | 22.449 | 42.925* | 7624 | 0.027 |
| ca_gdp | oadr_15 | 21.884 | -0.952 | 7624 | 0.032 |
| ca_gdp | oadr_20 | 22.008 | 0.494 | 7624 | 0.030 |
| ca_gdp | oadr_25 | 24.032* | 10.180 | 7624 | 0.028 |
| gross_savings_gdp | (baseline) | 114.147*** | -- | 6642 | 0.130 |
| gross_savings_gdp | safe_issuer | 108.159*** | 37.506 | 6642 | 0.133 |
| gross_savings_gdp | qe_active | 114.709*** | -0.489 | 6642 | 0.130 |
| gross_savings_gdp | eurozone | 115.729*** | -82.102 | 6642 | 0.132 |
| gross_savings_gdp | income_high | 135.067*** | -40.938 | 6642 | 0.180 |
| gross_savings_gdp | income_low | 92.381*** | 59.703 | 6642 | 0.196 |
| gross_savings_gdp | is_oecd | 127.168*** | -119.086* | 6642 | 0.131 |
| gross_savings_gdp | kaopen_sat | 118.500*** | -22.470 | 6642 | 0.130 |
| gross_savings_gdp | oadr_15 | 125.995*** | -6.360 | 6642 | 0.127 |
| gross_savings_gdp | oadr_20 | 121.750*** | -8.241 | 6642 | 0.128 |
| gross_savings_gdp | oadr_25 | 119.723*** | -10.610 | 6642 | 0.128 |
| gross_investment_gdp | (baseline) | 32.616*** | -- | 6620 | 0.068 |
| gross_investment_gdp | safe_issuer | 32.959*** | -2.103 | 6620 | 0.066 |
| gross_investment_gdp | qe_active | 31.477*** | -2.116 | 6620 | 0.068 |
| gross_investment_gdp | eurozone | 33.071*** | -5.397 | 6620 | 0.070 |
| gross_investment_gdp | income_high | 38.818*** | -18.997 | 6620 | 0.071 |
| gross_investment_gdp | income_low | 9.263 | 64.739*** | 6620 | 0.084 |
| gross_investment_gdp | is_oecd | 36.412*** | -7.893 | 6620 | 0.069 |
| gross_investment_gdp | kaopen_sat | 35.007*** | -14.784 | 6620 | 0.069 |
| gross_investment_gdp | oadr_15 | 35.835*** | -2.071 | 6620 | 0.068 |
| gross_investment_gdp | oadr_20 | 34.887*** | -3.782 | 6620 | 0.069 |
| gross_investment_gdp | oadr_25 | 33.651*** | -15.568 | 6620 | 0.071 |
| govt_bond_10y | (baseline) | -13.743 | -- | 1018 | 0.024 |
| govt_bond_10y | safe_issuer | -21.998 | 34.500* | 1018 | -0.015 |
| govt_bond_10y | qe_active | -9.850 | 28.581 | 1018 | 0.064 |
| govt_bond_10y | eurozone | -7.994 | -30.194 | 1018 | 0.041 |
| govt_bond_10y | income_high | -321.571 | 308.196 | 1018 | 0.029 |
| govt_bond_10y | income_low | -13.743 | 0.000 | 1018 | 0.024 |
| govt_bond_10y | is_oecd | -6.872 | -6.872 | 1018 | 0.024 |
| govt_bond_10y | kaopen_sat | -12.962 | -2.513 | 1018 | 0.031 |
| govt_bond_10y | oadr_15 | -7.936 | 0.101 | 1018 | 0.051 |
| govt_bond_10y | oadr_20 | -6.010 | -0.878 | 1018 | 0.051 |
| govt_bond_10y | oadr_25 | -9.922 | -6.718 | 1018 | 0.033 |
| nfa_gdp | (baseline) | -0.966 | -- | 7712 | 0.076 |
| nfa_gdp | safe_issuer | 0.692 | -9.310** | 7712 | 0.082 |
| nfa_gdp | qe_active | -1.088 | 3.731 | 7712 | 0.077 |
| nfa_gdp | eurozone | -1.263 | -0.485 | 7712 | 0.078 |
| nfa_gdp | income_high | 1.400 | -4.296 | 7712 | 0.100 |
| nfa_gdp | income_low | -0.994 | 1.172 | 7712 | 0.076 |
| nfa_gdp | is_oecd | -2.539 | 3.964 | 7712 | 0.090 |
| nfa_gdp | kaopen_sat | -0.860 | -1.392 | 7712 | 0.079 |
| nfa_gdp | oadr_15 | -2.189 | 0.293 | 7712 | 0.086 |
| nfa_gdp | oadr_20 | -1.994 | 0.447 | 7712 | 0.085 |
| nfa_gdp | oadr_25 | -1.762 | 0.593 | 7712 | 0.083 |

*PanelGLS with AR(1) correction. \*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*
